Football strategy part 2

The results of the first round of the playoffs are in and my predictions were wrong in my last post, Football strategy. I predicted the following and we can compare them with actual results below:

Predicted:
Bengals
Cardinals
Eagles

Actual:
Jets
Cardinals
Cowboys

Total Correct: 1 of 3

Looking at the true games outcomes, I should stay away from Vegas and save my money with an accuracy of only 33%.

My theory had the coaches on the losing teams the week before intentionally not putting forth their best game. The losing coaches had nothing serious to gain by winning the last regular season games and were not willing to risk revealing to their opponents their top strategies or injuring their stars. The coaches were holding back in the following manners:
1. Top players had limited play time
2. Most successful plays were not utilized
3. Experimental plays were brought into the playbook
In comparison, the winning teams during the last game of the regular season had no other option but to bring forth their best game and win. This lead to an imbalance in preparing for the playoff game. The losing team in the regular season's game knew what the best plays and match ups their opponents possess. In addition, the loser also had the advantage of trying various plays on their opponents allowing them to weed out the bad plays. The winning side was in the dark concerning the best plays of their opposition.

Any one who knows something about football realizes there are hundreds of factors contributing to a successful victory. Talent, coaching, team spirit, mistakes, luck, homefield advantage and on-field execution are to name a few. What this blog theory exercise demonstrated was the advantage a team gains by playing this coy coaching strategy is insignificant.

I smell nothing but a continuous winning streak by the Cowboys. Go Cowboys!