Showing posts with label college. Show all posts
Showing posts with label college. Show all posts

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Prodigies and geniuses


I found an interesting story on Yahoo today about a 13 year old young man, Colin Carlson, who is attending the University of Connecticut. He is doing well in his ecology and environmental studies with a 3.9 GPA (good by any standard) and plans on attending graduate school later in his teens. Obviously, he has an IQ at genius level. These types of individuals are rare and I am guessing his IQ approaches the off the charts level of 200 even at his young age. Many psychological studies have been performed on these types of individuals.

It appears as if our young protege is having problems completing his degree though. He is required to take a course in South Africa and UConn is not allowing him to attend due to safety reasons associated with his age (remember he is barely a teenager). The universities official line is,
Michael Kirk, a spokesman for UConn, would not comment on Colin's case. But he said that generally, safety is the university's first concern when travel is involved.
In true American fashion, the young teenager's mother responds with a lawsuit claiming age discrimination.
He and his mother say university officials told them he is too young for the overseas course. So he's filed an age discrimination claim with the university and U.S. Department of Education, which is investigating.

Finally, to top off these unusual circumstances the young prodigy claims,
"I'm losing time in my four-year plan for college," he said. "They're upsetting the framework of one of my majors."

The article goes on to mention he graduated from a high school curriculum at age 11 and how he felt out of place at school with pupils his own age. Yes, someone that smart would have trouble functioning in middle school where the rest of his cohort currently resides. I do believe we should allow students who are far ahead of their peers to skip a few grades. This case is a little extreme though.

IQ is just one measure of capability. It measure how well an individual solves a certain kind of problem. The test fails to measure other factors that lead to success like hard work, people skills and dedication. These skills develop over time resulting in a successful, mature person. This kid may be intellectually capable, but he will not be mature enough to deal with the kind of work a Ph D performs at only 22. I was considered a young Ph D when graduating at 29. The 7 years of living after 22 rounded out my general knowledge of the world. I fear this prodigy is going to end up as a puppet for some cruel entity wasting away his talent. This even does not touch on the simple concept of doing things that a teenager and young adult does at those ages. No prom, dates or other normal youth activities for him.

Finally, universities should put age limits on full time students. I would guess that 15 or 16 would be appropriate. That would stop these weird situations from appearing. UConn was right in not allowing the genius to travel to a dangerous country like South Africa. UConn was wrong in allowing him to be a full time student on track for a degree.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

NCAA basketball tournament


It is collegiate spring break in March, thus, the NCAA men's basketball tournament is beginning this week. At time of this post, 1:20 PM CST, the games have begun. This post will cover just a few statistics associated with the 65 team, three week long single elimination tournament. I am playing in a bracket on ESPN.com with my coworkers. I know little about college basketball, but after my last place showing in the bracket last year this year is going to be based on the professional sportscasters' prognostications.

First, we will investigate random picking of winning teams starting at the 64 team start. If one flips a coin, the chances of landing on one side (say heads up) is 50 % or 1 in 2. Flip the coin a second time, there is still a 1 in 2 chance that coin will land heads up. Basic statistics have you multiply the results together for the odds of both coin flips being heads up, 0.25 % or 1 in 4. The simplest way to calculate the odds of every flip being heads up are 1 in 2^n, where n is the number of coin flips. We will apply this to the NCAA tournament. In the single elimination tournament with 64 teams, 63 games are played. The odds of picking every game correctly in a random fashion (50% odds per game) are 1 in 9*10^18 or 1 in 9,000,000,000,000,000,000!

Second, the tournament setup has teams in 4 regional brackets. Each bracket has teams ranked as seeds 1 to 16 according to their regular season record and strength of competition. The first round has the seeds playing against each other in this manner: 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15, 3 vs 14, 4 vs 13, 5 vs 12, 6 vs 11, 7 vs 10 and 8 vs 9. According to wikipedia since 1985 and institution of the 64 team bracket, the following odds apply during first round.
  1. The #1 seed has beaten the #16 seed all 100 times (100%).
  2. The #2 seed has beaten the #15 seed 96 times (96%).
  3. The #3 seed has beaten the #14 seed 85 times (85%).
  4. The #4 seed has beaten the #13 seed 79 times (79%).
  5. The #5 seed has beaten the #12 seed 66 times (66%).
  6. The #6 seed has beaten the #11 seed 69 times (69%).
  7. The #7 seed has beaten the #10 seed 61 times (61%).
  8. The #8 seed has beaten the #9 seed 46 times (46%).
Using these statistics by picking the highest seeded team through entering points 1 to 6 above in our statistics and assuming that rest of the tournament has 50% odds, the new odds of picking every game correctly is still the astronomically high 1 in 7*10^13 or 1 in 70,000,000,000,000.

Those people who do correctly pick every winner in the brackets are not using random choices, they are using educated guesses (statistics) with some luck to help them out.