Football strategy part 2

The results of the first round of the playoffs are in and my predictions were wrong in my last post, Football strategy. I predicted the following and we can compare them with actual results below:

Predicted:
Bengals
Cardinals
Eagles

Actual:
Jets
Cardinals
Cowboys

Total Correct: 1 of 3

Looking at the true games outcomes, I should stay away from Vegas and save my money with an accuracy of only 33%.

My theory had the coaches on the losing teams the week before intentionally not putting forth their best game. The losing coaches had nothing serious to gain by winning the last regular season games and were not willing to risk revealing to their opponents their top strategies or injuring their stars. The coaches were holding back in the following manners:
1. Top players had limited play time
2. Most successful plays were not utilized
3. Experimental plays were brought into the playbook
In comparison, the winning teams during the last game of the regular season had no other option but to bring forth their best game and win. This lead to an imbalance in preparing for the playoff game. The losing team in the regular season's game knew what the best plays and match ups their opponents possess. In addition, the loser also had the advantage of trying various plays on their opponents allowing them to weed out the bad plays. The winning side was in the dark concerning the best plays of their opposition.

Any one who knows something about football realizes there are hundreds of factors contributing to a successful victory. Talent, coaching, team spirit, mistakes, luck, homefield advantage and on-field execution are to name a few. What this blog theory exercise demonstrated was the advantage a team gains by playing this coy coaching strategy is insignificant.

I smell nothing but a continuous winning streak by the Cowboys. Go Cowboys!

Football strategy

As I am starting this post, it is 4:09 PM Central Standard Time to track this statement. I will make a follow up to confirm or deny my theory. My theory has to do with NFL football and first round playoff wins due to intentional coaching influence on a team. For some reason this year, three of four first round playoffs had the same teams play each other one week before in the last game of the regular season. The games are:
Philadelphia Eagles - Dallas Cowboys
Cincinnati Bengals - New York Jets
Green Bay Packers - Arizona Cardinals
What is of interest last week is the teams that had nothing significant to gain lost. Accordingly, teams that had something significant to gain won. The Cowboys, Jets and Packers won. If two teams did not win, they were going to either be eliminated from playoff contention (Jets) or lose home field advantage in the first round (Cowboys). The Cowboys also had to save face after the brutal loss last year during the last game of the year ('08 season) to the Eagles, 44-6. The Packers had nothing to gain or lose in their victory.

It was no accident the prior week's outcomes happened. What makes it even more so suspicious is the lopsided manner the winning teams achieved their victories with the following scores:
24-0
33-7
0-37
It has to do with coaching strategy and the advantage these teams will gain in the first round playoffs contributed to these extreme scores. The playoffs advantage far outweighed the one win in the team's regular season's record. I predict that the following teams will win in the first round of playoffs: Eagles, Bengals and Cardinals. What is being tested is the effect of coaching and player psychology in a team's success. I will further extrapolate in the next post.

To put forth my bias, I am a Cowboys fan living in Texas. I deeply hope that my theory is faulty and that the Cowboys beat the snot out of the Eagles. Go Cowboys!