Football strategy part 3

The post is a continuation on two previous posts, Football strategy parts 1 and 2, examining the various influences upon a successful team in the NFL playoffs. The initial posts demonstrate that coaching strategy alone does not guarantee a winning team. Another weekend has passed by with the second round results giving a clear indication of other factors that significantly contribute to victory. Of the three games, three of four games had the home team winning (Saints, Vikings, and Colts) by land slides. The fourth game had the visiting team winning (Jets) by a small margin. The home teams all had one week off without a game. Knowing these facts, two factors stick out here: homefield advantage and player rest.

Homefield advantage is as it sounds, the home team has a slight advantage. Reading up on the topic, the bookies in Las Vegas give the home team a ~3 point advantage. Why? To me, these following things are obvious. Playing in an arena who cheers for your side will help the momentum in your favor. This contributes to the fact that the field is familiar and is your turf. Defend the homeland, it is instinctual. The other factor is sleeping in your own bed without the hassle of travel. Stress levels are reduced. It is easier to prepare for game day.

The other important factor, especially at this late point in the season, is one week of rest without a game. These guys have been working hard since late July in weight rooms, practice fields and during games. The physical punishment upon a human body is severe. Even to the young in-shape men it is tough. Players are big and strong enough to routinely deliver head trauma through concussions with helmets on for protection. Teams are riddled with injuries of all sorts. Psychological stress to keep playing your best is also really high. Failure to perform on the field and someone else will gladly take your spot on the team. The one week of rest allows injured players to heal and prevents new injuries opportunities that could occur during a game. Rest will allow further focus on the game at hand instead of recovering from a prior game. I believe the one week off is the true advantage to a team.

Football strategy part 2

The results of the first round of the playoffs are in and my predictions were wrong in my last post, Football strategy. I predicted the following and we can compare them with actual results below:

Predicted:
Bengals
Cardinals
Eagles

Actual:
Jets
Cardinals
Cowboys

Total Correct: 1 of 3

Looking at the true games outcomes, I should stay away from Vegas and save my money with an accuracy of only 33%.

My theory had the coaches on the losing teams the week before intentionally not putting forth their best game. The losing coaches had nothing serious to gain by winning the last regular season games and were not willing to risk revealing to their opponents their top strategies or injuring their stars. The coaches were holding back in the following manners:
1. Top players had limited play time
2. Most successful plays were not utilized
3. Experimental plays were brought into the playbook
In comparison, the winning teams during the last game of the regular season had no other option but to bring forth their best game and win. This lead to an imbalance in preparing for the playoff game. The losing team in the regular season's game knew what the best plays and match ups their opponents possess. In addition, the loser also had the advantage of trying various plays on their opponents allowing them to weed out the bad plays. The winning side was in the dark concerning the best plays of their opposition.

Any one who knows something about football realizes there are hundreds of factors contributing to a successful victory. Talent, coaching, team spirit, mistakes, luck, homefield advantage and on-field execution are to name a few. What this blog theory exercise demonstrated was the advantage a team gains by playing this coy coaching strategy is insignificant.

I smell nothing but a continuous winning streak by the Cowboys. Go Cowboys!

Football strategy

As I am starting this post, it is 4:09 PM Central Standard Time to track this statement. I will make a follow up to confirm or deny my theory. My theory has to do with NFL football and first round playoff wins due to intentional coaching influence on a team. For some reason this year, three of four first round playoffs had the same teams play each other one week before in the last game of the regular season. The games are:
Philadelphia Eagles - Dallas Cowboys
Cincinnati Bengals - New York Jets
Green Bay Packers - Arizona Cardinals
What is of interest last week is the teams that had nothing significant to gain lost. Accordingly, teams that had something significant to gain won. The Cowboys, Jets and Packers won. If two teams did not win, they were going to either be eliminated from playoff contention (Jets) or lose home field advantage in the first round (Cowboys). The Cowboys also had to save face after the brutal loss last year during the last game of the year ('08 season) to the Eagles, 44-6. The Packers had nothing to gain or lose in their victory.

It was no accident the prior week's outcomes happened. What makes it even more so suspicious is the lopsided manner the winning teams achieved their victories with the following scores:
24-0
33-7
0-37
It has to do with coaching strategy and the advantage these teams will gain in the first round playoffs contributed to these extreme scores. The playoffs advantage far outweighed the one win in the team's regular season's record. I predict that the following teams will win in the first round of playoffs: Eagles, Bengals and Cardinals. What is being tested is the effect of coaching and player psychology in a team's success. I will further extrapolate in the next post.

To put forth my bias, I am a Cowboys fan living in Texas. I deeply hope that my theory is faulty and that the Cowboys beat the snot out of the Eagles. Go Cowboys!