Thursday, December 23, 2010

Global Reset


As we are in the heart of the holiday season, people start to think about the new year and the potential it could bring. This blog tends to be technical ideals for the layperson, but this post is on a something that influences everyone, the economy. My wishes may seem demented initially. Think it through, they make rational sense. My wish is for our economic institutions to face their bankrupt reality and begin defaulting on their debt. This will force leaders everywhere to make decisions that are significant and lasting.

We are in economic trouble because of excessive debt levels at all levels of society. The main debt sources are mortgages, credit card debt and auto loans. Compounding this fact is in the US (all Western societies) we no longer manufacture many items. In essence, we consume more than we produce. Since the initial stages of the crisis appearing in July 2007 (two Bear Sterns MBS hedge funds collapsed), almost all policy has been kick-the-can-down-the-road type ignoring reality. The US federal government backed by the Federal Reserve and the banking industry backed our financial industry in the depths of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The result was more debt was accumulated on the books of government agencies. US federal government debt stands at $13.8 trillion or ~90% GDP and is quickly rising. Our deficits are unsustainable and will make this debt burden impossible to pay in the next few years. If this was a US problem alone, rest of the world would continue on while we solve our problems. Unfortunately, this is a world wide problem with Europe and Japan in even worst conditions. There is more debt than the ability to pay, thus, it will not be paid. I predict by the next presidential election, much of the debt will be defaulted upon.

The defaulted debt will cause a Great Reset. If our leaders want a society worth living in, they will be forced to make hard decisions about a variety of topics including economics, government spending and social order. Why do I want this to occur? As the way thing are, the debt load is consuming available capital into useless support of an over sized financial industry along with other less productive pursuits like the war-machine and etc. Good portions of this capital could be put to more productive uses like dealing with replacing declining Crude Oil stocks are our main transportation source. Many other good social/economic forces could also be financed. One positive result would lead to the eventual reduction in unemployment since more people would be allowed to work. The other reason is it could bring about the next big thing in technology. The way it is now, future technologies are not emerging due to a lack of will from funding sources. I would like to join the next big thing, but it requires funding and societal support.

This is my wish. It would result in a beautiful renewal or rebirth. Happy holidays everyone!

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