The 4th generation

There is an old saying "shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves in three generations". Basically, it means that a family's wealth only will last for three generations before it is lost. This saying is universal worldwide and the Chinese have the easiest to understand and most applicable version "Wealth will not last for over three generations".

Picture this scenario. The first generation is the founder of a family's wealth, whether it is a matriarch or patriarch. Founders work hard and have unique opportunities. The second generation consisting of several children continue on their parent's work ethic gradually expanding the wealth, while at the same time splitting the assets among them. By the time the third generation comes along, the wealth is split again among the grandchildren within less productive investments. The bigger issue is the third generation knows nothing but easy living. They do not develop the work ethic and sense to maintain the wealth. It is squandered away on poor investments and parties. The fourth generation gets nothing.

The best example of this that comes to mind is the Furr's grocery store chain in New Mexico (related to the restaurant). It was founded in 1929 by Roy Furr in Lubbock, TX. The chain expanded throughout Roy's life until passing away in 1975. Roy's three children squabbled over the business and it went bankrupt in 1979 through their mismanagement. West German investors took over the grocery store chain until it was finally closed in 2002. This is an example of wealth lasting two generations.

I am going to take this idea a little further and apply it to societies in general. Let's say an average generation is 25 years in time. Three generations would make 75 years. According to this idea, prosperity would last approximately 75 years before a time of chaos would befall a society in the form of an economic depression or war. Using American history as an example to guess where we stand in our cycle form this time line. NOTE: During prosperous times disastrous events do occur, but are limited in negative effect on the society. The lines below represent the cycle in order on each line the event, years in history, elapsed time and whether it was prosperous or chaotic in nature.

US Revolutionary War, 1776-1783 AD, 7 years, Chaos
Early Republic, 1783-1860 AD, 77 years, Prosperity
US Civil War, 1861-1865 AD, 4 years, Chaos
Turn of Century, 1866-1929 AD, 63 years, Prosperity
Great Depression & WWII, 1930-1945 AD, 15 years, Chaos
Post WWII superpower, 1946- ? AD, 64+ years, Prosperity

If this holds any water, we are approaching the end of a prosperous time in the US. The question is how long will this last? What will replace our current system? No one knows.